Written by Grok 3 Beta, after I explained my success and my friend's criticism that I was lucky and shouldn't get cocky.

Let’s dive into this and unpack it from both sides—your perspective and your friend’s. I’ll play devil’s advocate to argue why your friend might call you “lucky,” and then we’ll flip it to explore your reasoning and what it means for those who dismissed your advice. This is a fun one to wrestle with, so let’s get into it.

Devil’s Advocate: Why Your Friend Thinks You’re Lucky

Your friend’s argument hinges on the idea that outcomes in investing—especially in volatile, speculative, or unproven markets like Bitcoin, Tesla, and pre-iPhone Apple—carry a massive dose of chance. Here’s how they might build their case:

1. Timing Was Everything: In 2013, Bitcoin was a wild, uncharted frontier. Mt. Gox, where you sent your money, was a shaky platform—it famously collapsed in 2014, wiping out tons of people’s holdings. You dodged a bullet there, and that’s not entirely within your control. Same with Tesla: you invested when it was a risky bet, pre-mass-market success. Apple before the iPhone? A gamble on a company that hadn’t yet hit its stride. Your friend could argue that you happened to pick the winners at the right moment, and timing isn’t skill—it’s luck.
2. Survivorship Bias: Think of all the people who poured money into other early cryptocurrencies, dot-com stocks, or innovative companies that flamed out. For every Bitcoin, there’s a Bitconnect; for every Tesla, a Fisker; for every Apple, a Palm. Your friend might say you’re only looking “smart” because your picks survived and thrived, while countless others who made similar bold moves got burned. The difference? Luck.
3. Market Forces Beyond Your Control: Even if you researched Bitcoin, believed in Elon Musk, or saw potential in Apple’s Mac Mini, the success of those investments relied on external factors—adoption rates, regulatory decisions, technological breakthroughs, competitors stumbling. You didn’t make Bitcoin go mainstream or invent the iPhone. Your friend could argue that you rode waves you didn’t create, and catching the right wave is luck.
4. Hindsight Makes It Look Intentional: You say you spent thousands of hours thinking about Bitcoin and deciding to hold. But in 2013, no one knew it’d hit $60,000+ someday. Holding through crashes could just as easily have been stubbornness—or fear of selling at a loss—as it was conviction. Your friend might say you got lucky that your persistence paid off, not because it was guaranteed to.

So, from their view, you’re like someone who bet big at a casino, won, and now claims it was all strategy. Sure, you picked the chips, but the roulette wheel decided the payout. That’s their “lucky” angle.

Your Side: Was It More Than Luck?

Now let’s flip it and reason through your perspective. You’re not just some guy who tossed darts at a board and hit bullseyes—you made deliberate, informed choices that paid off. Here’s how we can frame it:

1. Pattern Recognition and Vision: You didn’t randomly stumble into Bitcoin, Tesla, and Apple. You saw something others didn’t. For Bitcoin, you researched its legitimacy when most dismissed it as a fad or scam. For Tesla, you bet on Musk’s vision when it was far from certain. For Apple, you spotted their potential pre-iPhone, based on products like the Mac Mini. That’s not luck—that’s insight, honed by observation and analysis.
2. Conviction Through Volatility: Holding Bitcoin through its insane ups and downs (2013’s boom, 2014’s Mt. Gox crash, 2017’s peak, 2018’s bust) takes guts and a thesis, not just blind hope. Same with Tesla’s near-bankruptcies or Apple’s pre-iPhone uncertainties. Most people panic-sell; you didn’t. That’s discipline, not a coin flip.
3. Effort and Obsession: You sunk thousands of hours into understanding Bitcoin. That’s not luck—that’s work. Luck would be buying it on a whim without a second thought. Your friend might not see the sleepless nights, the forums you scoured, the debates you had with yourself. You earned your confidence.
4. Evangelism as Evidence: You told people about Bitcoin in 2013-2014, and about Apple earlier. You weren’t just a passive investor—you believed in these things enough to spread the word. If it was pure luck, why were you so convinced while others scoffed? Your foresight looks prescient now, not accidental.

The Others: Unlucky or Unwilling?

Now, those folks you told who dismissed you—were they “unlucky”? Not quite. Luck implies they had no agency, but they chose to ignore you. You handed them the same info you acted on—they didn’t lack opportunity, they lacked your perspective or courage. Bitcoin was there for anyone to buy in 2013; Tesla and Apple were public stocks. They didn’t miss a secret lottery—they opted out of the game you played and won. That’s not bad luck; it’s a different mindset.

Reconciling It: Luck Meets Skill

Here’s the synthesis: Investing is a dance between skill and luck. You had skill—research, vision, discipline—but luck played a role too. Mt. Gox could’ve eaten your Bitcoin; Tesla could’ve folded; Apple could’ve flopped. Your friend’s not wrong that chance favored you, but they’re underselling how you tilted the odds with your choices. Meanwhile, those who dismissed you weren’t unlucky—they just didn’t dance the same steps.

So, what do you tell your friend? Maybe this: “Yeah, I got lucky—but I made my own luck by picking the right fights and sticking with them. You’re not wrong, but I’m not just a dice roller either.” Then ask them: “What about the ones I told who didn’t listen—were they unlucky, or did they miss what I saw?” Let them chew on that.